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2001 Global Conference
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Panel Detail:
The Wired and Wireless Telecommunications Revolution
Wednesday March 21, 2001
9:45 AM - 11:15 AM


Speakers:

Greg Geiling, Vice President, Senior Communications Equipment Analyst, J. P. Morgan H&Q (New York)

Erik Gustafson, Senior Portfolio Manager, Stein Roe Mutual Funds (Chicago)

William Wiberg, General Partner, Bowman Capital and formerly Lucent (New York)


Moderator:

Dennis Kneale, Managing Editor, Forbes (New York)

Summary:

There are about 300 million people with wireless phones around the world. The so-called technology "mania" has taken over and the three biggest factors contributing to this are fiber bandwidth, the wireless technology and the World Wide Web. According to Erik Gustafson this mania is "nothing we′ve ever seen before." It took the market and all of us by storm.

Over the past six months, economic growth, driven mainly by technological developments, has slowed down dramatically. In spite of this decline in the economy, data traffic has not slowed down. Internet and cell phone usage has been steady and traffic growth is still strong. What we need is an infrastructure that will be able to handle the amount of data flowing through this traffic. William Wiberg brought up the issue of how to bring content to the user in the proper form. He said that people tend to compare mobile to DSL but they are not satisfied with mobile just yet.

One of the main issues of concern is how to make money on the Internet. Corporations are still looking for the most effective business model to generate positive income. Greg Geiling said that out of about 320 service providers, only 14 are well funded. As soon as the mania is over, the strongest ones will emerge from the rubble.

The U.S. is lagging behind Europe in wireless communication due to lack of standards. The U.S. telecommunications industry has four competing standards as compared to Europe′s single GSM standard. Competition stimulates this business but capital markets funded too many unsound businesses. Panelists agreed that the market needs a telecom service provider that is actually profitable.

Dennis Kneale raised the possibility of U.S. service providers penetrating the Asian and European markets. Geiling pointed out that from the technological perspective, Europe is still three years behind the U.S. and struggling to handle the capacity of the Internet. He didn′t think that the U.S. could infiltrate that market since European telecommunication companies are more bureaucratic and are completely tied into old school mechanics.

 


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